How did I buy a cheaper driverless car

The first commercialized driverless cars, will probably be “driverless” only on highway and traffic jams. They will need to be able to be both “manual” and driverless. In the following years or decades, fully driverless cars will be available. “Fully driverless” means that the car is able to drive from any point A to any point B completely autonomously with no need of any driver interaction except entering the destination.

When this point of fully autonomous cars is reached, maybe will it be possible for unlicensed driver to operate the driverless car (which means: just entering its destination). Unlicensed means not having any driving licence or driving education.

When driverless cars can be operated by unlicensed operators with a plain standard smartphone, why would driverless cars need a steering wheel, brake pedals, consoles displaying speed or rpms, etc...?

For sure this will have an impact on the price of the car...

Who will be liable for a driverless car accident?

Driverless cars will evolve from today’s self parking cars to fully autonomous cars in different steps as explained in a previous post “Driverless cars for the next decades in 4 steps”. This will have many impacts on auto insurers.

step 0: today’s self parking feature and Google cars
The fact that some cars can self park themselves do not have any impact on auto insurance, because though the car is self parking itself, it does it at a speed still controlled by the driver. So the driver is the main responsible for his car liability.

step 1: partially autonomous driverless cars
We’ve been told that Mercedes is going to sell a driverless car in 2013. But the car will be driverless for 10 seconds i.e. drivers will be allowed to have their hand off the steering wheel for a maximum of 10 seconds. As far as I read, the driver will still be liable if anything bad happens during the time he has his hands off the wheel.

For the following years, we can reasonably anticipate that these 10 seconds will become 20 then 30 seconds and even a minute. From here let’s ask a series of questions:

• The biggest one being: “What is the limit from where drivers having an accident, when his car is in automated mode, will be able to attack the car manufacturer?”
• Who will decide what the limit is?
• car manufacturers, government or insurers?
• What if the US go for 35 seconds and europe for 25 seconds?
• How do we prove that the accident happened while the car was in driverless mode?
• Do driverless cars need some airplane like black boxes?

step 2: everyone can operate a driverless car
When everyone will be allowed to operate a driverless car, meaning telling it to drive automatically 100% from point A to point B, driverless car “operators” (I guess they are not “drivers” anymore) will not be liable for any accident anymore.

Who will be liable then for driverless car accident? Maybe the car manufacturer will be liable then. The car manufacturer will then transfer the fee to driverless car users. We can also imagine that driverless cars will now be leased and that they will be liable for any incident. Or maybe, will it be an auto repair shop responsible for car maintenance.

Most probably, will it be a mix of all those stakeholders.

Maybe, it won’t have any significant impact because driverless cars are supposed not to have any accident anymore...

The revenge of faster horses

In 2012, a poll initiated by Bosch, asking about driverless cars acceptance among drivers stirred lot of comments last year: Majority of today’s drivers are not ready yet to be “driven” by automated cars.

Should this stop the effort of developing driverless cars? Probably not, if we remember 2 quotes from some famous innovators, and one from conventional wisdom:

• Steve Jobs -- BusinessWeek, May 25 1998: "A lot of times, people don't know what they want until you show it to them."
• Henry Ford: "If I had asked my customers what they wanted, they'd have asked for a faster horse."
• A banker advising Henry Ford's lawyer not to invest in the Ford Motor Co: "The horse is here to stay, but the automobile is a novelty - a fad"

Maybe drivers not wanting to be driven by automated cars do not accept to just watch the car driving, but I guess most of them, will quickly find much more interesting things to do than driving, such as reading, talking on the phone, watching news... I guess no one likes to drive in traffic jams.

To reflect back on the 3rd quote, actually, “horse did stay”, except that nowadays most of the time riding horse is a leisure.

Maybe in a few decades, driving a car will be a weekend pastime only allowed on some closed loop. No one will be allowed to drive on standard road because it will be deemed much too dangerous.

Maybe, there will be more people riding horse on weekends than people driving cars. It will be then the revenge of the horse...

Driverless cars for the next decades in 4 steps

“Roma die uno non aedificata est” (Rome wasn’t built in 1 day)

Driverless cars will become reality during the following years or decades.

We can classify this evolution in 4 steps:

• step 0: today’s self parking feature and Google cars
• step 1: partially autonomous driverless cars
• step 2: everyone can operate a driverless car
• step 3: shared driverless cars

step 0: today’s self parking feature and Google cars

Technically cars can sometimes self drive themselves in a static environment for a reasonable price: When parking themselves. This is legally allowed worldwide because the driver still controls the speed at which self parking is occurring.

Technically cars can self drive themselves in all dynamic environments for an unreasonable price. This is legally allowed in some US states but a licenced driver needs to be present at the driving seat.

step 1: partially autonomous driverless cars

This step can be divided in several sub steps which are different only in the degree of involvement drivers will be required to have or freedom that they will have. It is the last step where technical issues are involved.

Next year’s Mercedes-Benz: having hands off the wheel for 10 seconds

Technically cars can self drive themselves in some dynamic environment for an “affordable?” price: on highways during stable conditions and in traffic jams. This may be legally allowed worldwide because the driver is allowed to not touch the steering wheel for 10 seconds maximum.

Why did Mercedes-Benz chose that the maximum allowed was 10 seconds and not 5 or 20 seconds? This question is triggering the next sub step.

1 minute (and more) free on highways and traffic jams

“How long end drivers are allowed (technically and legally) not to pay attention to road” will be the most interesting thing to watch for the next 5 to 10 years and especially:

1. environmental conditions allowing it.
2. the price of the technical features needed.
3. reliability.

Driverless cars are autonomous during the entire highway part of a trip

End to end autonomous but car has both manual and self driving mode but a licenced driver is still required to be at the helm.

In the 2 last steps, no technical improvement happens anymore. These steps are about business and environmental changes.

step 2: everyone can operate a driverless car

This step will be reached when it will be not required to have a driving licence to operate a car. All technical issues have been solved.

As in previous step, maybe unlicenced driving will be allowed on some specific, secured, well known trips or when some specific conditions are met (i.e. at specific hours when overall traffic is light).

If driverless cars can be completely autonomous on all or most trips and operated by unlicensed driver, the several features of today’s cars are not needed anymore such as steering wheel, pedals, mirrors... Maybe the driving console can also disappear and the only device you need is a smartphone to enter the trip and poll the time of arrival.

step 3: shared driverless cars

Compared to previous steps, there is no technical improvement any more. Only cab companies are now allowed to own cars and have them maintained.

Shared usage step:

• has little legal implication, except the driver becomes a mere passenger with no responsability
• transforms the way car manufacturers, insurers, auto repairs and cab companies work and interact with each others.
• transforms the way cities are organized

Cars are now as safe as trains. Liability has shifted from the driver to the car manufacturer. Auto insurance clients are no more end users but rather auto manufacturers, auto repair shops or and cab companies.
Parked cars no longer clutter streets and supermarkets parking lots.

You order the car you need for shopping at the local supermarket or for several hours vacation trip with the whole family.

To go shopping:

1. A car that you ordered picks you at home and drives you to the supermarket.
2. At the supermarket, you leave the car and it is then used by someone else or parked away.
3. When you have finished your shopping, the same car or another ones comes picking you at supermarket exit and drives you home.

Everyone becomes James Bond in "Tomorrow never dies" where he drives a car with a remote.